Good predictions require good priors
Date created: 2022-07-19
People are relatively accurate in predicting things where they have strong priors (human lifespan) but poor in predicting things with uninformative priors (ancient Egypt or other things most people know very little about).
How can one perform better with prediction? From the book Superforecasters:
It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course.