Laplace's law

It’s a Bayesian method for estimating probability based on observations. Let w be the number of outcomes, and n be the number of attempts.

$\frac{w+1}{n+2}$

So if you have 4 observations in 10 attempts, you do 5/12 ≠ 42%.

Laplace’s law is useful with few data points

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References §

• Link to website, bibtex from Zotero or note with book/blog/etc summary