People have accurate priors about things they often encounter §

Date created: 2022-07-19

We absorb information about things through experience, so most people have accurate priors about movie lengths, human lifespans, poem lengths etc.

Since Good predictions require good priors, we are good at estimating things where we have experience but poor at other things (in the example they ask people to estimate pharaohs’ reigns in ancient Egypt).

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References §

• Link to website, bibtex from Zotero or note with book/blog/etc summary