Notes from an aspiring academic

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      • Core activities
      • Developing an appreciation for the process of research
      • Digital note-taking for research
      • My aspirations as an academic
      • The value of being wrong
      • 1000 true fans
      • 20% of youth have experienced suicidal ideation, and 7% have made a suicide attempt
      • 40 questions to reflect on the previous year
      • A core idea in computing is combining a small and fast memory with a large but slow memory
      • A drawback of digital communication is that the messages never go away
      • A majority of individuals with suicidal thoughts or behaviors do not disclose them to other people
      • A majority of planning steps leading up to a suicide attempt take place within 12 hours prior to the attempt.
      • A minimum spanning tree is a useful benchmark for route problems
      • A new model for decision making needs to focus less on bias, be realistic, be environment specific, and multidisciplinary
      • A PKM should foster the creation and linking of atomic notes
      • A random forest model achieved an AUC of 0.73 when predicting self-harm two years later
      • A subscription model is a sustainable way for content creators to earn money
      • A sustainable way to keep up with the research literature is to read with a goal in mind
      • A-B testing
      • A-B testing is a strategy for explore exploit
      • Academia
      • Academia in its worst form leads to turf wars with little real-world relevance
      • Actively developing your taste in your field of work will help you select projects
      • Advantages of a Zettelkasten
      • agent-based model
      • AI-generated content will flood the internet and will drown out any signal in an onslaught of noise
      • AI-generated text is going to flood the internet with trivial content and drown any authentic human writing in a sea of noise
      • An association between regional rates of bipolar diagnosis and suicide deaths in young males suggest that improved bipolar care for youth may reduce suicide mortality
      • An understanding of game theory can point to changes that alter the equillibrium
      • Anyone you interrupt more than a few times an hour risks doing no work at all
      • Appeal to nature
      • Apply Occam's razor in writing
      • Artists are reduced to content creators and pressured to produce a constant stream of content
      • As a notes database grows, search becomes more difficult
      • As early as 1982, an online forum was used for suicide prevention through counselling in direct messages and referral to a local crisis center
      • As many as 70% of individuals with suicidal thoughts or behaviors disclose their issues when the medium is online writing
      • As the economic structure of newspapers shifted, so did their reporting
      • ASD
      • Ask for Help
      • Association networks
      • atomic note
      • Attention residue
      • Auxiliary hypotheses
      • Axiom of local independence
      • Bandwagon fallacy
      • Baye's Rule
      • Bayesian networks
      • Bayesian statistics require priors
      • BDD
      • Be wary of niche competition that produces things that nobody finds valuable
      • bean counting
      • Behavioral economics needs a new model rather than more biases compared to a rational actor
      • Being alone, at home, and passive leisure correlated with increased suicidal ideation in patients recently discharged from inpatient care after a suicide attempt
      • Being disproven is a sign of good, not bad, thinking
      • Being productive is about maintaining a steady, average speed on a few things, not maximum speed on everything
      • Beliefs can also signal status
      • Benchmarks for national status can prevent military disputes
      • BeReal shows how uneventful our lives actually are and how biased the Instagram feed really is
      • Between-state painkiller prescription differences is in part explained by the level of scrutiny doctors received when prescribing the drugs
      • Beware of survivorship bias in academic career advice
      • Big O notation
      • Bistable system
      • Brazil's trade is limited by its geography
      • Breaking the fourth wall
      • Brief acute care suicide prevention interventions reduce the probability of subsequent suicide attempts
      • Brief CBT was cost-saving compared to care as usual in the treatment of deliberate self-harm, saving £838 over twelve months
      • Bubble sort
      • By continuously working on your own projects, you create things and take accountability rather than passively consuming content
      • Caching
      • Caching can be used for both proximity and performance
      • Canary in a coal mine
      • Chance events on the level of the individual are often averaged out at the group level
      • Collector's fallacy
      • Commitment makes good things better and bad things worse
      • Commonly used instruments in suicide risk do not have adequate sensitivity and specificity
      • Commonplace book
      • Complex systems
      • Complicated systems have high maintenance costs
      • Compound growth
      • Computational kindness
      • Computer science problems concern tradeoffs between space, time and certainty
      • Computers have been used to provide one-to-one suicide prevention counselling since 1982
      • Computers overloaded by tasks resort to thrashing
      • Concise explanations spread faster because they are easier to read and understand.
      • Confidence interval formula in R
      • Confirmation bias
      • Confusion or resistance when writing are not inherently bad, they are part of the process
      • Conspiracy theories
      • Conspiracy theories give simple black and white explanations
      • Constraint Relaxation
      • Construct validity
      • Context shifting
      • Continuous Relaxation
      • Copernican Principle
      • Create and strive towards writing goals that are within your control
      • Create many first versions, the good ideas will grow into more mature projects
      • Creating things you would use or read yourself is a good sign you are working on something important
      • Creative insights often come when we drop a problem from conscious effort
      • Critical slowing down
      • Cross-pollination
      • Cross-validation
      • Cross-validation prevents overfitting by creating holdout data
      • Cultural capital
      • Data leakage
      • Data spending
      • Data splitting
      • DBT-A leads to long-term cost savings compared to treatment as usual due to fewer inpatient and emergency visits
      • Deep work
      • Depth over width is the path forward for content creators
      • Descriptive models
      • Design a process
      • Design your notes to have value long-term
      • Designing better processes for knowledge work means minimizing back and forth messages
      • Despite often claiming to be evidence-based, few apps designed to treat common mental disorders have direct evidence to support their efficacy
      • Despite well defined end-goals, subgoals such as getting more energy can produce unwanted results in the development of AI
      • Diminishing returns
      • directed acyclic graphs
      • Discipline can sometimes mean doing less, not just more
      • Discounting
      • Disease names can imply causes
      • Divergent causality
      • Diversity in information input will help you generate new ideas
      • Divide and conquer
      • Do not let appeal to nature get in the way of eating with a small carbon footprint
      • Doing important work starts with working on important problems
      • Dominant strategy
      • Don't let money be a detour to achieving other values
      • Door in the face
      • Double debt
      • Early rounds in single elimination tournaments can have big consequences
      • early warning sign
      • Echo chambers drive community formation through the use of a shared language and particularly many custom in-group words
      • ecological momentary assessment
      • Eisenhower Matrix
      • Emphasize insight and gradual growth instead of ticking big goals off a checklist
      • Empirically driven models
      • Enhanced screening and safety planning reduced suicide-related events by 30% after visits to emergency departments
      • Epidemiological data suggests mental illness is present in half of individuals who die by suicide
      • Equifinality
      • Equipotentiality
      • Escape velocity
      • Evergreen Notes
      • Evidence for the use of mobile technologies as tools for suicide prevention are emerging, however there are only 4 published RCTs to date and the studies are generally small with inconsistent findings.
      • Explore Exploit
      • Exponential backoff
      • Exponential backoff between connection attempts is patient while not wasting time
      • Export in Brazil is made difficult by few navigable rivers connected to the coast
      • Face validity
      • Faced with the reality of Trump's behavior, his advisors realized it was better to put guardrails around him than to try to fundamentally change him
      • Faustian Bargain
      • Feynman technique
      • First-principles thinking
      • Fixed-schedule productivity
      • Fleeting notes
      • For the individuals in a team where focus is most valued, it's also the hardest to achieve
      • Fourth wall
      • Freedom of speech needs to be absolute, otherwise we risk a slippery slope of banning more and more ideas
      • Friction forces you to slow down and reflect
      • Friction in a note-taking system isnt necessarily bad
      • Friction typically manifests as many small things
      • Fundamental changes often involve a change in how we view the world
      • Game theory
      • Germ theory of disease
      • Gerrymandering
      • Gittins Index
      • Good notes have many hooks for effective retreival
      • Good predictions require good priors
      • Good writing has a ruthless focus on one specific purpose
      • Great man theory
      • Hanlon's razor
      • Hard choices can mean that the differences between the options are small
      • Having a tendency to respond irrationally can discourage others from harming you
      • Having multiple perspectives and possible explanations means you are not bound to a specific model
      • Hedonistic adaptation
      • Hemingway bridge
      • Hierarchical Bayesian Coding
      • Historical contingency
      • Homeostasis
      • hook
      • Human memory can be seen as a cache
      • Hype cycle
      • ICBT stepped-care for children and adolescents with OCD led to cost savings of $2104 compared to face-to-face CBT
      • Identifying who will attempt suicide and when may not be necessary for effective prevention
      • If research output functioned like open source projects, it would be easier to correct, improve upon and build on your findings
      • If you divide your time between projects evenly, you lose out on some of the benefits from deep focus
      • If you focus on note-taking itself and not the end goal, notes can distract you from the real writing
      • If you only care about the binary outcome (win or loss) you dont have to win by a large margin
      • If you think about students as future colleagues, your teaching will emphasize active engagement
      • If you view your PKM as a garden, you realize maintenance is important
      • If you want to develop business ideas, look for problems in your daily life
      • If you write simply you cannot hide lack of ideas behind complicated words
      • Improving access to psychological treatments
      • In heads-up poker, there has to be disagreement about sorting for games to happen
      • In the year prior to suicide, 80% of individuals have contact with primary care
      • Incentive structures can induce overfitting in companies
      • Incorporating the dynamic short-term changes in suicidal ideation and intent improved prediciton of post-discharge suicide attempts
      • Increased autocorrelation in suicidal ideation measures was an early warning sign for one individual in a proof-of-concept study
      • Increasing focus in your work means choosing what not to do
      • India and China alone account for 42% of all suicide deaths
      • Individuals who self-harm have 3.6 times increased all-cause mortality
      • Individuals who self-harm with fluctuating suicidal intent are at higher risk of subsequent suicide attempts
      • Individuals with multiple suicide attempts have a tendency to 'get stuck' in states of more intense suicide ideation, whereas individuals with no or one attempt stabilize at a state of low risk
      • Inertia
      • Inferential models
      • Informal group structures give leaders more freedom and less accountability
      • Information cascade
      • Information inoculation
      • Insertion sort
      • Insomnia and rumination are key mechanisms propelling stage transitions in depression
      • Intermediate packets
      • Interrupt coalescing is built into the design of postal services
      • Intervention efficacy for suicidal thoughts and behaviors has not improved over the last 50 years
      • It is unclear if the recent decrease in suicide mortality is due to suicide prevention activities or general improvements in population health
      • It's more important to understand than to be right
      • Job insecurity can in part explain why academics chase influencer status
      • Johnny Decimal
      • Junior academics and influencers obsess over metrics
      • K-means clustering of weekly suicidal ideation in adolescents identified a high-risk group which experienced more suicidal events compared to a medium and low-risk groups
      • K-nearest neighbor model
      • Keep a list of important problems and test new ideas against them
      • Keeping all notes in one place facilitates connections between diverse ideas
      • Knowledge work contains building blocks that can be used in multiple projects
      • Lagrangian Relaxation
      • Lags and retrieval error in human memory is unavoidable with more information
      • Landmark analysis
      • Language can distort priors by promoting salience
      • Laplace's law
      • Laplace's law is useful with few data points
      • Lasso regularization
      • Least Recently Used is a useful rule of thumb for caches
      • Leaving the text and going for a walk without distractions can help you with creative blocks
      • Let song ideas build up over time, and work on those that accrue the most
      • Leverage points
      • Like scales in music, the core activities at work appear in most projects
      • Lindy Effect
      • Lingua Franca
      • Literature notes
      • Losing a parent to suicide is a strong risk factor for suicidal behavior in children
      • Lower demand for psychological treatments, due to non-medical interpretations of symptoms and structural issues in underserved areas, should not be ignored
      • machine superintelligence
      • Making a suicide attempt requires overcoming a predisposed tendency to avoid pain, injury and death
      • Many commitments bring a fixed amount of overhead, so keep the number of commitments low
      • Marginal analysis
      • Marginal gains in many aspects can have a big impact
      • Measure what is meaningful, not what is easy
      • Mechanistic models
      • Mental health apps often share data with third parties without properly disclosing it
      • Mental models
      • Mergesort
      • Metabolism is a biological regularization algorithm
      • Moment-to-moment mood connections are stronger in individuals with a mental disorder, suggesting that those individuals are susceptible to downward spirals of negative mental states
      • Money is a neutral representation of value
      • More than one in 100 deaths globally are the result of suicide
      • Most core activities in knowledge work are ad-hoc
      • Most excuses for not pursuing a creative life are false
      • Most interventions for suicidal thoughts and behaviors are not linked to common suicidality theories
      • Motor coordination deficits in the first episode of psychosis indicate poor outcomes after ten years
      • Murmuration
      • Narrow your scope
      • Negative aspects of in-patient psychiatric care might be involved in causing some suicides
      • Network betweenness
      • Network edges
      • Network effects in communities means the value of new users increases quadratically
      • Network nodes
      • Network predictability
      • Network theory of psychopathology
      • Networking
      • New ideas emerge from random thoughts
      • Node closeness
      • Node strength
      • Non-neutral information about electric radiation induces symptoms from sham-exposure
      • Nonsuicidal self injury was often negatively reinforced and used as a method to escape anxeity, anger or sadness
      • nosocomial
      • Note capture should focus on what resonates
      • Note taking should enable the development of ideas across projects
      • Note-taking should be an instrument, not an end in itself
      • Notes can incubate in a PKM and be discovered later
      • Occam's razor
      • OCD
      • Once voters are engaged with one question, political operatives can turn their attention to other issues
      • One blind spot due to the design of Twitter is passive negative sentiment
      • One Level Higher
      • One month before suicide, 44% of individuals have contact with primary care
      • One possible source of the political tensions in the US is the overproduction of highly educated individuals with poor job prospects
      • One reason for Haitis poverty is that they paid a double debt to France after it's independence
      • One sign that you are well suited for a role is that you enjoy the processes involved
      • One way to avoid information cascades is to display doubt publicly
      • Only 28% of those with self-harm at age 16 were free from mental health or substance use problems, and had adequate educational or employment status
      • Only self-guided digital interventions that directly target suicidality reduce suicidal ideation
      • Open Science
      • Opportunity cost
      • Optimal stopping
      • Our information environment is controlled by app and device makers
      • Outrage can be a way to enhance your prestige in a public forum
      • Over half of individuals report onset of suicidal ideation or planning on the same day as their suicide attempt
      • Overfitting
      • Overhead spiral
      • Overton window
      • p-value
      • pairwise Markov random field
      • PARA system
      • Pareto Principle
      • Parkinson's Law
      • Partial correlation networks
      • Patients recently discharged from psychiatric facilities have almost 200 times increased risk of suicide compared to the global rate
      • Patients that are referred to–but do not attend–psychiatric services after deliberate self-harm are at an increased risk of death by suicide
      • Peak-end rule
      • Pecking orders are preemptive violence
      • PEEL structure for paragraphs
      • People have accurate priors about things they often encounter
      • Permanent notes
      • Persistent effort will lead you to do work in line with your taste
      • Personal Knowledge Management
      • Pessimistic induction
      • Pied Piper
      • polygenic mutation-selection balance
      • Pomodoro technique
      • Predicting suicide attempts and suicide
      • Predictive models
      • Predictive validity
      • Preparation of personal affairs was the single strongest predictor of a suicide attempt in retrospective interviews
      • Prescription painkillers acted as stepping stones to dependence on opioids such as heroin
      • Preserving optionality
      • Priors
      • Procrustean bed
      • Productive meditation
      • Productivity
      • Productivity strategies are motivating because we realize our time is finite
      • Propositional titles help linking atomic notes together
      • Pruning
      • psychological autopsy
      • Psychological autopsy studies estimate the rate of psychiatric disorders in suicides to be around 90%
      • Psychomotor slowing in psychosis is similar to psychomotor retardation in depression
      • Psychotherapy for depression has a small effect on suicidal ideation
      • Publish or perish has started to shape the broader creator economy
      • Putting more time into a specific project can have outsized effects on its quality and value
      • Quantifiable outcomes enables one-off comparisons rather than many pairwise sorts
      • Quiet and stillness was rare before smartphones and social media
      • Random forest prediction of suicide attempts in adolescents reached an AUC of 0.72
      • Randomness
      • Reading list
      • Realism
      • Recursion
      • Reductionism
      • Regret minimisation
      • Regularization
      • Relative importance networks
      • Relaxation
      • Religion provides structure for thought and social interactions
      • Researchers tend to ask many questions at the beginning of a text
      • Resilience
      • Responders and non-responders to intensive ERP differed in their response to emotional distress
      • Response diversity
      • Response-class problem
      • Revenue on social platforms does not come from the value of the content itself, but its ability to grab attention for ads
      • Rumination
      • Rumination is a trans-diagnostic style of thinking in psychopathology
      • Safety planning Intervention
      • Scheduling
      • Scheduling needs to balance responsiveness with throughput
      • Schizophrenia is deadlier than any other chronic disease during extreme heat waves
      • Scientific theories explain robust phenomena in the world
      • Scientific theories represent components of the real world
      • Second brain
      • Selection bias
      • Self-guided digital interventions have a small but significant effect on suicidal ideation
      • Shibboleth
      • Shopping at Amazon trades moral values for superb convenience
      • Show, don't tell
      • Signal versus noise
      • Slow productivity
      • Slow productivity enables seasonality in work
      • Slow progress in research feels worse when it is broken down into discrete tasks
      • Social media
      • Social media provides instant relief from discomfort
      • Socratic Questioning
      • Sometimes you need space, not new input, to come to a decision
      • Sometimes you need to remove barriers instead of continuing to improve your product
      • Sorting
      • Spending a shorter amount of time thinking about a problem can prevent overfitting
      • Start with bad then iterate to great
      • Steady state
      • Strengthening empathy should not be seen as the main justification for art
      • Subgoal
      • Subsidized low-income housing is a leverage point in urban areas
      • Subtle or slow progress in research feels frustrating and unrewarding
      • Success can distract you from focusing on the things that produce success in the first place
      • Success in academia leads to outside demands on your time and focus
      • Successful individuals often reverse-engineer recipes for success and ignore external factors
      • Suicidal ideation tends to be episodic, with quick onset and short duration
      • Suicidal ideation varies dramatically even during short time-spans
      • Suicide
      • Supervised models
      • Surprise is an important signal when you are generating ideas
      • Survival analysis
      • Survivorship bias
      • Symptom networks can have contagion effects where activation spreads through the network
      • Symptom pool
      • Symptoms occuring in multiple disorders can bridge activation between the networks
      • Task selection is more important than trying to stay on top of everything
      • Taste, rather than capacity for output, will continue to be valuable when AI is everywhere in our daily lives
      • Text-generating AI will highlight all the bullshit things we do when we work on computers
      • The algorithmic feeds of today enhance trivial content that produces outrage and other strong reactions
      • The average cost of providing ICBT for children and adolescents with OCD was $2140
      • The bottleneck of creative work is not idea generation but execution
      • The brain builds models of the world based on limited sensory input
      • The covid-19 pandemic was an omnicrisis
      • The cryptocurrency market may be in a stage of pruning
      • The driving forces behind deinstitutionalization in psychiatry was access to better medication, high costs of psychiatric hospitals, and public concerns about the practices in psychiatric hospitals
      • The effect sizes associated with app-based treatments are generally smaller than face-to-face or ICBT
      • The familial risk of suicide may be particularly high for female first-degree relatives of suicide probands
      • The Five Whys - Root Cause
      • The goal of a predictive brain is to minimise prediction error
      • The Hamming question
      • The hidden costs of owning a car makes it an expensive thing to own long-term
      • The high pace of information consumption promotes passive consumption rather than active interaction with creators
      • The increased risk of suicide within families of suicide decedents is primarly explained by a shared genetic etiology, but shared environment factors also play a role
      • The Information Action Ratio
      • The interaction of reduced ideation, increased energy, and improved mood may put individuals within a high threshold of high risk of suicide during spring
      • The life expectancy of self-harming individuals is reduced by 25 years
      • The low-context structure of social media platforms forces you to take a stance and express your opinions as a way to relate to others
      • The main benefit of web3 technologies like blockchain is enabling transactions with low trust
      • The main cause of context shifts in knowledge work is checking unscheduled back and forth messages
      • The majority of health-care costs in the year after self-harm are due to inpatient psychiatric care
      • The mean hospital cost per self-harm episode in Denmark is over 7000 USD
      • The mean level and variability of suicidal ideation identified subgroups of individuals with a previous suicide attempt
      • The medium you use to consume information directs the way you view the world
      • The morality wars in the US is about the source of moral authority
      • The nature of psychiatric disorders
      • The news feed expanded the competition for status to everyone you have every met, rather than the people in your vicinity
      • The PHQ-9 item on suicidality is predictive of suicide attempt or death
      • The probability of sickness absence, disability pension and psychiatric care is increased in the years following a suicide attempt
      • The rise in ASD seen in Sweden can be explained by external factors rather than an increase in symptoms
      • The shortest or most convenient path is not always the one designed
      • The TIC-P is a feasible self-rated questionnaire of healthcare consumption and productivity loss in psychiatric patients, with high test-retest reliability and agreement with registry-based estimates
      • The value in any piece of content is not evenly distributed
      • The value of a linked database of notes builds up over time
      • The value to explore or exploit shifts across the lifespan
      • The viral dynamics of social media platforms nudges us to produce and consume junk info
      • Theory of constraints
      • There are about 700 000 deaths by suicide in the world each year
      • There are approximately 20 suicide attempts for every death by suicide
      • There is no inherent value in being organized, but it creates space for creativity because it reduces overhead
      • Those with a personal knowledge database will be able to tailor AI-tools to fit their needs
      • Thought-action fusion
      • Thrashing
      • Time management
      • Time-consuming activities like golf are status symbols because it is a costly display
      • Tipping point
      • To be a good conversation partner, you should offer up lots of grips that the other person can grab on to
      • To create great creative work, focus on process rather than output
      • Too much diversity in a group can lead to misunderstandings and confusion
      • Transparency is necessary but not sufficient to evaluate the quality of a data analysis
      • Turing test
      • Twitter is an elite spectacle rather than a digital town square
      • Ulysses pact
      • Underpowered studies and publication bias can generate unlucky winners that try to replicate a false positive finding in subsequent research
      • Uninformative priors
      • Unsolved problems and questions can be viewed as sources of curiosity
      • Unsupervised models
      • Use goals that are within your control to reach
      • Use of multiple evaluation metrics can prevent overfitting
      • Use valuable skills as leverage to get more deep work
      • Use yourself as a proxy when writing. What you find interesting and weird will likely be entertaining to others too.
      • Veil of Ignorance
      • What is easy to understand is not necessarily what is true
      • When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure
      • When a problem is too complex in full, sampling can help
      • When causal relations among symptoms are strong, the onset of one symptom will lead to the onset of others
      • When procrastination is the root cause, no to-do app will get things done for you.
      • When scheduling your tasks, multiply the required time by importance
      • When social media giants like Facebook and Twitter prioritize algorithmic feeds for distraction, they compete with all other forms of distraction
      • When social media platforms emphasized news feeds instead of interactions between users, they lost value from network effects
      • When social media replaced social networks around 2009, we became broadcasters instead of connecting with each other
      • When the stakes of a decision are high, slowing down becomes more important
      • When you write about a subject you see your own gaps in knowledge
      • When your main goal as an academic is to learn about and solve the most important problems, publications and other activities are byproducts
      • Why am I the right person to tell this story
      • Work has been infused with beliefs about self-actualization
      • Work on solvable, not grand, problems
      • Working on the right question means aiming at the core of a problem
      • Writer's block means that you dont have enough material to work with
      • Writing
      • Writing is the medium of research
      • You can increase the surface area for luck by cultivating your curiosity
      • You need space and calm to play with ideas
      • Young people work hard to gain status on social media because they have no other sources of social capital yet
      • Zettelkasten
      • Zettelkasten allows you to link notes together
      • Zettelkasten notes can be used in multiple projects
      • Zettelkasten notes can lead to byproducts
        • ‘The Music Has Stopped’ Crypto Firms Quake as Prices Fall
        • 10 habits for a successful postdoc
        • 16 Life-Learnings From 16 Years of the Marginalian
        • 40 Useful Concepts You Should Know
        • Abortion Is an Unwinnable Argument
        • Abundant number
        • Air travel is a disaster right now. Here’s why.
        • AlphaGo the movie
        • Amp It Up!
        • Art Is for Seeing Evil
        • Becoming a magician
        • Can Brazil Become a Superpower
        • Characteristics of successful researchers and founders
        • Communicating with Slip Boxes
        • Concise explanations accelerate progress
        • Could machine learning fuel a reproducibility crisis in science
        • Cultivating Depth and Stillness in Research
        • Dancing With Systems
        • De-Automating My Reading Notes, A New and Better Way For Capturing My Reading Notes in Obsidian
        • Designs for Learning
        • Dying for Fame 21 Reality Stars Committed Suicide in a Decade
        • Filterworld Algorithm cleanse
        • Filterworld The invention of the feed
        • From inspiration to idea sex how to generate ideas on demand
        • Geoffrey Hinton Tells Us Why He’s Now Scared of the Tech He Helped Build
        • Good Conversations Have Lots of Doorknobs
        • GPT-4 Is a Reasoning Engine
        • How Online Mobs Act Like Flocks Of Birds
        • How the Internet Turned Us Into Content Machines
        • How to achieve more while studying less - Obsidian & Conceptual notes
        • How to Blow Up a Timeline
        • How to Do Great Work
        • How to figure out what to do with your life
        • How to Get New Ideas
        • How to Turn Problems Into a Curiosity Engine
        • How to Work Hard
        • Human Nature and Choices vs. Options
        • I Didn’t Want It to Be True, but the Medium Really Is the Message
        • Impossible Silences
        • In the day of the postman
        • Inside the War Between Trump and His Generals
        • Introduction to the Zettelkasten method
        • Is Code the Best Way to Represent a Data Analysis
        • Is internet addiction eradicating the habit of reading
        • Johnny Decimal-ising my life
        • Julian Shapiro guidebook on non-fiction writing
        • Knowledge synthesis, A conceptual model and practical guide
        • Leverage Points Places to Intervene in a System
        • Luxury Beliefs are Status Symbols
        • McNally2020, What is Mental Illness
        • Michael Nielsen - Notes on Writing
        • Mimetic Traps
        • Mitchell2022 - What have we learned from psychiatric genetics, The view from 2022
        • My PKM Story
        • My Tinder Decade
        • NessLabs - How to take smart notes
        • Nick Seitz - Obsidian day one starterpack
        • Note-taking strategy from Obsidian forums
        • Notes Against Note-Taking Systems
        • Notes on Progress An environmentalist gets lunch
        • Of the hundreds of methods out there to help us get things done... why dont they, you know, work
        • Oliver Burkeman's last column the eight secrets to a (fairly) fulfilled life
        • On conceptual rigor “What do we take ourselves to be doing”
        • Pay Yourself First
        • Personal Knowledge Management Systems, 6 Ways To Get Started
        • Positivity, contribution, and aligned ambitions are traits of great scientific collaborators
        • Principles of Effective Research
        • Putting Ideas into Words
        • Reprodubility, expect less of the scientific paper
        • Sam Altman's productivity tips
        • Social Media Is Warping Democracy
        • Status as a Service (StaaS)
        • Taste Will Be the Most Important Skill in the Age of AI
        • Terry Davis Was Right
        • The Age of Social Media Is Ending
        • The Art of Doing Science and Engineering
        • The Awesomest 7-year post-doc
        • The Common Lies Writers Tell You
        • The Elite Overproduction Hypothesis
        • The Empathy Racket
        • The End of Writing
        • The Expanding Dark Forest and Generative AI
        • The Four Quadrants of Conformism
        • The gospel of consumption
        • The Intellectual Obesity Crisis
        • The Maintenance Race
        • The Opinion Pageant
        • The Paradox of Goals
        • The perks of living without social media
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The goal of a predictive brain is to minimise prediction error

Sep 01, 2023, 1 min read

The goal of a predictive brain is to minimise prediction error §

Date created: 2021-10-12

We want to minimise unexpected states or surprise, because they may be a threat to our survival. We do this by adjusting priors based on experience or exerting change on our surroundings.


References §

  • Hierarchical Bayesian Coding
  • The brain builds models of the world based on limited sensory input
  • Baye’s Rule

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  • The goal of a predictive brain is to minimise prediction error
  • References

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