- Bibtex: @olthof2020
- Bibliography: Olthof, M., Hasselman, F., Strunk, G., van Rooij, M., Aas, B., Helmich, M. A., Schiepek, G., & Lichtwarck-Aschoff, A. (2020). Critical Fluctuations as an Early-Warning Signal for Sudden Gains and Losses in Patients Receiving Psychotherapy for Mood Disorders. Clinical Psychological Science, 8(1), 25–35. https://doi.org/10.1177/2167702619865969
- n = 328, 114 had sudden gain or loss (34.8%)
- The clinical setting was intensive psychotherapy
- Daily ratings on the Therapy Process Questionnaire (TPQ)
- Looks like a homegrown thing made by one of the senior authors. They have a few items on symptom severity that is more broad.
- Code: https://osf.io/4szhb
- Higher dynamic complexity predicted sudden gains and losses in a 4-day window. It was an early warning signal.
- Dynamic complexity was calculated on a per-item basis.
- How can we understand sudden gains/losses? If we think that psychopathology and psychotherapy are complex systems, they may have Tipping point which pushes the system from one state to another.
Although sudden gains and losses are very different phenomena in a clinical sense, they are similar in the fact that they both represent order transitions, a universal change phenomenon that can be predicted with general EWSs.
First paragraph of discussion: